Baseball 2007

Alright, here are my predictions for 2007:

AL East

1. Red Sox
2. Yankees
3. Blue Jays
   
4. Orioles
5. Devil Rays

I take the Red Sox because they have superior starting pitching. I could see the Yankees slipping out of even second. They're so old. I really could see the O's having a breakthrough season and getting 85-90 wins. It will depend on whether Loewen & Cabrera can live up to their potential. Of course, I could also see them losing 90. But at least I finally have some hope.

AL Central

1. Tigers
2. White Sox
3. Twins
4. Indians
5. Royals

I don't understand all the hype about Cleveland. Their bullpen is still an issue. Their starting pitching needs to prove it can stay healthy. Their lineup is potent though. I really like Hafner. Even without Rogers, the Tigers have too much pitching and an improved lineup with Sheffield. The White Sox pitching will bounce back and they have a terrific manager.

AL West

1. Angels
2. A's
3. Rangers
4. Mariners

I was tempted to take Texas to win the World Series because of the post-Buck Showalter trend. I wouldn't be surprised to see Oakland take this division. I don't think they'll miss Zito as much as everyone thinks.

NL East

1. Phillies
2. Braves
3. Mets
4. Marlins
5. Nationals

I like the Phillies starting pitching. I also think they'll get off to a slow start, fire Charlie Manuel, get a decent manager to manage the bullpen (Davey Johnson?) and win the division. If Smoltz and Hudson stay healthy, the Braves will hang around all year. The Mets' pitching is a mess. The Nats may be one of the worst teams in recent history. What is up with that pitching staff?

NL Central

1. Cardinals
2. Reds
3. Cubs
4. Astros
5. Brewers
6. Pirates

To be honest, nobody in this division impresses me. Even the Cards have some big issues - rebuilding their rotation behind Carpenter. Because they got hot in October, everyone forgets they were a mediocre 83-78 in the regular season. The Cubs have a lot of talent and a great manager, but I think it's going to take some time for them to jell. (Just think, next year will be 100 years since their last World Series title.)

NL West

1. Dodgers
2. Padres
3. Diamondbacks
4. Rockies
5. Giants

I have to admit the Giants may not be a last place team but I hope nothing but losing on them as long as they employ Barry Bonds. He's an absolute disgrace. If he breaks the record, I hope he does it on the road and really hears it from fans. (Philly would be a perfect place.) The Dodgers look really good. The Padres and D-backs rely too much on old pitchers for me to pick them.

Wild Cards:
AL: A's
NL: Braves

World Series:
Red Sox over Dodgers

Making playoff predictions is worthless, because it truly is a crapshoot in this day and age. Consider these World Series champions of the 2000's:

2000: Yankees (less than 90 wins)
2002: Angels (Wild Card)
2003: Marlins (Wild Card)
2004: Red Sox (Wild Card)
2006: Cardinals (less than 85 wins)

Looking Ahead

After a VERY relaxing week in Florida (other than the traffic), I'm back in Bloomington and ready for Spring. I'm looking forward to longer days, warmer weather, and summer in Bloomington. But I'd be lying if I said I didn't have an eye on next basketball season.

Assuming DJ White stays (and he'd be foolish to leave), IU may have their most talented team in 15 years. I see IU having 3 big questions next year:

1. Who will be the point guard? Armon Bassett was clearly more comfortable at shooting guard. Was that because he was a freshman or is that his natural position? Can Jamarcus Ellis or Jordan Crawford step in and run the point? Of the two, I would think that Ellis would be a better option since he is a JUCO transfer.
2. How good is Eric Gordon and how will he fit in? I've never seen the guy play but people who have watched Indiana HS basketball for years say he is the best guard to come out of the state since Oscar Robertson. If that's true, he will be the most talented player Kelvin Sampson has ever coached. How will Sampson fit him into a team style of play? Will the other players stand around watching?
   
3. How far can IU go with such a young team? I see IU starting 2 freshmen (Gordon & Eli Holman), a sophomore (Bassett), and a senior (DJ). The other spot will be open to competition with AJ Ratliff (senior), Joey Shaw (soph), Jamarcus Ellis (soph), and Jordan Crawford (fresh) battling it out. If Sampson wants to go bigger then Brandon McGee(fresh) and Xavier Keeling (soph) could be in the mix.
   

It will be exciting to see the combination of outstanding talent and coaching together again in Bloomington. It has been a long time (early 90's) since we've seen that!

Greetings from Florida!!!

It has been a while since I have blogged. Things had been pretty busy at work and I had been trying to get things done at home in preparation for my vacation to Florida. I've been down here 3 days and the weather has been fantastic! Basically, it's been in the 80's and sunny every day. Huge improvement over the 19 degrees it was in Indiana Thursday morning when I left!

Here are some random thoughts:

• Universal Studios Orlando is just outstanding. Marc, Michelle, and I stayed at the Hard Rock Hotel. They have a huge pool with a 200-foot slide and it is within easy walking distance of the 2 amusement parks and City Walk, the restaraunt and entertainment district. The pool has a 200 foot slide. Marc went down 40 times over 3 days; I only made it down about 25. At the Islands of Adventure amusement park, we rode the Incredible Hulk roller coaster 5 times and the Dueling Dragons 3 times. By staying at the Hard Rock Hotel we got "front of the line" privileges for the rides. Other than technical difficulties on Dueling Dragons, our longest wait was 15 minutes with a normal wait of about 2-3 minutes. It was like P&G day at King's Island!
• I'll be interested to see where IU ends up seeded. I really have no idea. I thought if IU could have ended up 11-5 in the Big 10 with 1 B10 tourney win that they'd be a 4 or 5 seed. Now I'm guessing a 7?
  
• The Ravens have received very mixed reviews for their free agency moves. Given their cap situation I think they've done well except for 1 thing - they gave up too much for Willis McGahee. I think he will be an upgrade in an area that desperately needed upgrading. But I hate to give up 2 third round picks, especially after we've already given up this year's fourth round pick in the McNair deal.
• I'm not optimistic that Jonathan Ogden will be back. He seems to have lost his drive. The key to success in the NFL is preparation. From a physical standpoint, that comes from the off-season workouts, which can be drudgery. Ogden is a really smart person who has many other interests outside of football. He doesn't need the game. The Ravens really need to find a tackle in the draft. Even if he comes back, next season will be it for him.
• When it comes to the O's, I know I'm bipolar. I'll now revert to my optimistic side. The key to the O's "Quest for 82" are Erik Bedard, Daniel Cabrera, and Adam Loewen. So far in 6 combined starts the 3 of them have given up 1 run (set up by a botched pick-off by Chris Gomez). Marc and I are going to Ft. Myers on Thursday to see them play the Twins. If they keep their current rotation we should see Loewen pitch.