Random Musings on a Sunday night

• For the 4th time this season the Ravens were out-coached and out-disciplined. After hinting that he was an offensive genius prior to coming to Baltimore, Brian Billick continues to lead a crap offense. Why did he continue to play an obviously-hurting Steve McNair when Kyle Boller (who basically won the past 2 games) and his strong arm are sitting on the bench? Why does Willis McGahee only get 14 carries despite averaging over 7 yards per carry? Why does the team CONSISTENTLY have more penalties than the opposition, including an offsides on a missed FG, which led to a Cleveland touchdown. Even without AD, this team is better than last year simply by replacing Jamal Lewis with Willis McGahee. Billick just hasn't had this team ready.
• Next Week: San Francisco 17 Baltimore 16
• The Ravens were 100% right on Jamal Lewis. In 3 of his 4 games he's averaging less than 4 yards per carry. I like Willis McGahee a lot. I wish we had a coach who had a freakin' clue on how to use him!
  
• Why do these NFL executives get paid so much? I could have told any of these idiots not to hire Norv Turner or Cam Cameron (combined 1-7).
• It's readily apparent that the NFL consists of Indianapolis and New England and everyone else. It's like Dallas and San Francisco in the 90's. BORING!
• Don't be surprised if Cincy knocks off New England tomorrow night. Doesn't make sense but it's just a feeling I have.
• Today was a great day for baseball. Days like today are why I love baseball so much and why I strongly support FREE THE BIRDS. The Rockies won to force a playoff for the wild card with San Diego. The Phillies won to clinch the NL East. It is the 3rd playoff appearance for Pat Gillick since he "had to go" according to the baseball genius Peter Angelos. Since he "had to go" the Orioles have not had a winning season. My dream headline this winter: "Angelos sells to Ripken Baseball." Do the right thing Pete!
• Baseball Prediction Assessment:
• The Good: Picked Phillies to start slow but win division, AL East 100% correct, picked Angels to win AL West.
• The Bad: Picked Cards & Tigers to win Centrals; Reds to finish 2nd, A's to win wild card
• The Ugly: Didn't understand hype about Cleveland & picked them behind the White Sox (although no one would have predicted Carmona to be that good & they don't win that division without him.)

The blueprint to beating the Ravens

For the third straight week, the Ravens opponent went with a no-huddle offense. And for the second straight week, the Ravens defense collapsed in the 4th quarter.

As I mentioned earlier, I don't feel Billick had the Ravens ready for the start of the season. I thought training camp was too soft. With teams running no-huddle on a consistent basis, the Ravens' defense is tiring badly in the 4th quarter. How badly? Look at these stats through 3 games:

Points allowed in Quarters 1-3: 21 (the offense gave up another 7)
Points allowed in 4th: 35

The Ravens are not a Super Bowl contender right now. They're not even the team to beat in their division right now. Pittsburgh is making an argument to be included in the same breath with Indy and New England.

My prediction for next week: Cleveland 23 Baltimore 14

Free the Birds!

Nestor Aparicio, the owner of Baltimore radio station WNST, is organizing the 2nd Orioles fan protest in the last 2 years. The protest will take place during Monday's game against Kansas City.

Free the Birds!

I told Marc last night that it's like the Orioles are in a vegetative state. They have the same name and play in the same city, but the team and organization I grew up with and loved is gone.

I truly believe that FTB I last year contributed heavily to Andy McPhail's hiring, which I think is going to be a good move. But I support FTB II because the Orioles still treat their fans like crap with everything from refusing to put "Baltimore" on their road jersey to only allowing team personnel on the team's flagship stations to being one of only 3 teams not offering their games in HD.

I'll be watching tomorrow night's game. Free the Birds!

The O's & Ravens finally have something in common!

Thanks to the O's "only" surrendering 8 runs last night, they have now gone 25 games without giving up 30. That matches the Ravens' current streak of 25 games without giving up 30. (Of course, if you count the playoffs, the Ravens are at 26.)

Congratulations O's!

Unfocused & Undisciplined

The Ravens lucked out today, thanks to 2 dropped TD's by the Jets in the last 2 minutes. The Ravens got a big lead and then got sloppy and were again victimized by lousy playcalling by Billick. In addition, they suffered 2 more major injuries - Trevor Price & Demetrius Williams. Williams' injury can be blamed on some horrible playcalling by Billick, trying a bomb with a 7 point lead and 3 minutes left.

The Ravens had 8 penalties, compared to 2 by the Jets. The Jets had no business even being in the game, falling behind 20-3 with a QB making his first start. But the Ravens got sloppy on defense and Billick refused to commit to the run. It's a good thing they didn't spend $40 million on a running back or anything.

If the Ravens finish with less than 10 wins, Billick needs to go. Newsome gets this team so much talent but unless little is expected, Billick underachieves with it.

So freakin' predictable!

To the surprise of no one at this blog, the Ravens weren't ready for tonight's opener. By the time they finally woke up, the Ravens had lost 3 fumbles, Jonathan Ogden, and BJ Sams. And I'm afraid by the time I wake up tomorrow morning, the Ravens will have lost Ray Lewis (possibly for the season) and Steve McNair (at least a couple of weeks) for significant stretches.

Here are my questions for Mr. Billick, a GREAT coach when he's the underdog and a LOUSY coach when he's the favorite.

• Why did McNair and McGahee look so out of synch in the first quarter on basic handoffs? Why wasn't more time spent getting the running game ready in training camp given the new running back and new offensive linemen? One fumble leading to a TD was a result of this lack of preparation.
• Why has the team prepared as if Ogden would magically heal just before the opener when 6 months of rest couldn't heal his toe? Marshall Yanda didn't start playing right tackle until 2 weeks ago. He got beat in the 3rd quarter, leading to a McNair fumble taken back for a TD. Again, lack of preparation.
• Why wasn't the team ready for the intensity of this game, leading to a ridiculous number of injuries, including Ray Lewis, Jonathan Ogden, and Steve McNair? Could it be the Club Med "training camp"?
• Why did the team throw 2 passes with a new QB after getting 2nd and goal at the 2 with 2:00 left in the game?
• Why are you 3-6 in season openers, including losses of 27-10, 34-15, and 24-7, not to mention the '04 embarrassment to the horrible Cleveland Browns?

Anyone who has followed this team over the years could see this happening from a mile away. It's not the loss, it's the way they lost. Cincinnati did not beat the Ravens tonight, Brian Billick's unprepared Ravens beat themselves. On top of that, this unprepared team has now lost 3 key players for a significant stretch because they weren't ready.

Hey Kirk Ferentz, would you like to move back to Baltimore? Charm City would love to have you back!

P.S. Mr. Goodell, you should be ashamed of your officials tonight. They didn't cost the Ravens the game by any stretch, but that lack of reversal on the interception challenge and the offensive pass interference were just awful.

NFL Predictions

My baseball picks were lousy, so take these with a grain of salt:

AFC East

1. New England
2. NY Jets
3. Buffalo
4. Miami

One of the reasons New England & Indy are always in the playoffs is that they both play in pathetic divisions. I like Cam Cameron, but he's a lousy head coach, which is the only reason I'm picking them behind Buffalo.

AFC North

1. Cincinnati
2. Pittsburgh
3. Baltimore
4. Cleveland

The Ravens have the most talent but Billick has done a crappy job of getting them ready. The offensive line is out-of-synch and I don't see Ogden staying healthy. McGahee may be overrated. I think the defense will miss AD more than anyone thought. And why did they give Boller an extension when Leftwich was available? Cincy's defense still sucks but they match up well with both Baltimore & Pittsburgh. As much as I hate the Steelers and their arrogant fans, I think Big Ben will bounce back and Tomlin will be a good coach. I'm sure by the end of the year Brady Quinn will be a media darling. Ugh!

AFC South

1. Indianapolis
2. Jacksonville
3. Tennessee
4. Houston

Nobody here can compete with Indy. Given their schedule, they may go undefeated. What is going on in Jacksonville? I think Vince Young will have a bit of a sophomore slump.

AFC West

1. Denver
2. San Diego
3. Kansas City
4. Oakland

I'm picking Denver not because I think they're a true Super Bowl contender but because San Diego lost 5 coaches, including their head coach, and hired Norv Turner. A.J. Smith is a great GM but his ego is going to cost him a shot at the Super Bowl.

NFC East

1. Philadelphia
2. Dallas
3. Washington
4. NY Giants

Another example of where coaching will be the difference. On paper, I'd take Dallas but I don't like Wade Phillips as a coach and I really like Andy Reid. I think the Redskins could surprise, which would be sad. I don't think Tom Coughlin will last the season.

NFC North

1. Chicago
2. Green Bay
3. Detroit
4. Minnesota

There is nobody worth talking about in this division other than Chicago. The Bears will be the same as last year - pretty dominant in the NFC but maybe only the 6th or 7th best team in the NFL.

NFC South

1. Carolina
2. Tampa Bay
3. New Orleans
4. Atlanta

New Orleans has NO defense and I don't see their offense being as explosive as last year. There aren't any great teams in this division but I think Carolina's defense will be good enough to carry them to the division title.

NFC West

1. San Francisco
2. St. Louis
3. Seattle
4. Arizona

This is purely a hunch. I have no idea why I'm picking the Niners other than the fact that I like Mike Nolan.

Playoff Predictions

Wild Card Round
San Diego over Cincinnati
Denver over Pittsburgh
Carolina over Washington
Dallas over San Francisco

Division Round
New England over Denver
Indianapolis over San Diego
Philadelphia over Carolina
Dallas over Chicago

Championship Games
Indianapolis over New England
Philadelphia over Dallas

Super Bowl XLII
Indianapolis 55 Philadelphia 3

I'd almost insert that Super Bowl score regardless of who makes it. I do think Indy will finish undefeated. Ugh!

Ravens not ready; Orioles Tragic; Remembering Hep

August was busy and I didn't have a chance to blog much. Here are my thoughts as September begins:

Ravens Preseason: The Ravens are not ready for the start of the season. You can already chalk up an 0-1 start, with Chad Johnson dancing around like a moron. It's so freakin' predictable and there's no excuse for it. This is probably the most talented team the Ravens have ever had. But they're not ready. Billick's management of the offensive line this summer has been terrible. Ogden's toe still isn't right yet Billick didn't bother moving the experienced Adam Terry to LT until the last preseason game, keeping rookie Jared Gaither there throughout the summer. Marc made an excellent point - Billick doesn't do a good job with teams with high expectations. His best coaching jobs - 2000, 02, & 06 were with teams with medium to low expectations. Meanwhile, he did a lousy job with the '04 & '05 Ravens, who talked Super Bowl both years and ended up with a 15-17 composite record. If this season is a disappointment, I'm beginning to think about Rex Ryan...

O's annual collapse: First, I'm very happy that the O's named Dave Trembley manager for '08. I love the guy. However, since he was named manager the O's are 1-10, including a 30-3 loss, giving up 11 8th-inning runs to Tampa, and being no-hit by a freakin' rookie. Andy McPhail made a terrific trade with Chicago this week, dumping Trachsel for 2 major-league ready prospects. Given how far the O's are away from contending, the dearth of major-league ready position players in the system, the amount of bad contracts they have, and the fact that Roberts, Tejada, and Bedard are free agents after '09, I've come to the conclusion that the O's need to trade all 3 players for high-level prospects. It's finally time to do the right thing, blow this thing up, and rebuild around Nick Markakis. I'd be a lot more excited about that prospect than staying the course with this crap.

IU football: What a great night at Memorial Stadium last night. A very nice tribute to Coach Hep. Then Kellen Lewis and James Hardy put on a show against an overmatched Indiana State team. A couple of complaints: (1) the ridiculous unsportsmanlike conduct penalty against Hardy and (2) the starting time & length of the game. After Hardy scored a 1st quarter TD, he went to his knees, closed his eyes, & pointed the football into the air as a tribute to Hep. That is the ultimate display of SPORTSMANSHIP! And thanks to the Big 10 Network, the game started at about 8:10 and lasted until after 11:30. Do we need a commercial break after every 5 plays?