Yankees-Orioles Predictions

Andy McPhail reports for full-time duty Tuesday. At about 6:45 he will begin to see just how much damage Peter Angelos has done to baseball in Baltimore. That's about the time he will notice that Camden Yards becomes Yankee Stadium South 9 times a year.

Here are my predictions for the Series:

Game 1: Yankees 8 Orioles 2 - Jeremy Guthrie has his first bad outing as a starter, overthrowing while trying to show the Yankees and McPhail that he's for real.

Game 2: Yankees 6 Orioles 3 - The game is close for 6 innings with Bedard and Clemens battling it out. Bedard leaves in the 7th with more hamstring tightness and the Yankees pound the O's bullpen, allowing Clemens to get victory 350. (BTW, not bad for a guy who appeared to be on a downward spiral in the mid-90's, then "bulked up" and became unhittable right in the middle of the steroids era. Funny how few people "suspect" him despite his Bonds-like performance spike in his mid to late 30's.)

Game 3: Yankees 4 Orioles 0 - The O's can't touch Wang while Cabrera makes just enough mistakes to lose.

Am I the only one to notice that Dusty Baker wasn't in the booth for his normal ESPN Monday Night Baseball? Maybe I'm reading too much into it but it does seem interesting...

This week in "As the Orioles Turn"

Just think, a week ago tonight Sam Perlozzo was still the Orioles' manager, Andy McPhail worked in the commissioner's office, Dave Trembley was a faceless bullpen coach, Miguel Tejada was approaching 4th place on the consecutive games played list, and Joe Girardi was an ex-manager turned TV analyst. At least one thing hasn't changed.

Here are my thoughts on a very memorable week in Baltimore:

• Orioles fire Sam Perlozzo as manager and replace him with Dave Trembley on an interim basis: As I mentioned earlier, firing Perlozzo isn't going to fix the O's problems, but it had to be done. Perlozzo really had no clue when it came to handling the bullpen and the overpaid players had lost confidence in him. Trembly was the right choice to replace him on an interim basis. He has a terrific minor league record. I'm not sold that he's the long-term solution though. One question for my man Pete Angelos: WHY WASN'T TREMBLEY AT THE PRESS CONFERENCE ANNOUNCING HIS HIRING???? As a fan, I'd like to know what the man has to say.
• Orioles hire Andy McPhail as President of Baseball Operations: IF, and this is a HUGE IF, Pete fulfills his promise to allow McPhail to have full and complete autonomy over baseball decisions, then this is the best move the Orioles have made since they hired Davey Johnson and Pat Gillick in November 1995. McPhail won 2 World Series as Twins' GM and led the Cubs to 2 post-season appearances in 13 years (which equals the # of Cubs' post-season appearances in the previous 50 seasons). If Wood and Prior had stayed healthy the Cubs would have been a perennial post-season team this decade. He really had that team set up for long-term success with a rotation of 3 20-somethings in Wood, Prior, and Zambrano. Of course those incredibly baseball-savvy Cubs fans (see Steve Bartman) couldn't see that and chased him out of town. No wonder they haven't won the World Series in 99 years!
  
• Joe Girardi turns down the O's managerial job: This really hurt. When I heard the news it felt like someone had just kicked me in the stomach. I know that Girardi has only managed 1 year and didn't even have a winning record. And I know the Marlins basically have the same record without him this year. But he was NL Manager of the Year. And, to me, the bigger blow is the fact that the best available candidate out there turned down what was once one of the best jobs in baseball. Compared to Girardi, the rest of the candidates pale. I love Davey Johnson, but he's 64 and hasn't managed in 7 years. Dusty Baker scares me because of the way he overused Wood and Prior (and the fact that the O's do have some good young pitchers). Jerry Manuel lost the White Sox clubhouse. Joey Cora actually interests me. He's young and was an overachieving, hustling 2nd baseman. He could very well be the next Joe Girardi or Manny Acta, which is what I think the O's need. Why do I want a younger guy when I just said a few weeks ago to hire Davey Johnson? Because with McPhail on board I think the O's need to commit to a rebuilding effort with younger players. More on that later.
• Miguel Tejada's streak of 1152 consecutive games ends...and not without some controversy: On Wednesday night Tejada's wrist was broken when he was hit by a pitch. On Thursday Tejada tried to keep his streak alive by batting 2nd, bunting into a force play, and leaving for a pinch-runner. On Friday the O's officially determined that his wrist was broken and put him on the DL. A lot of people made a big deal about Thursday's charade. I didn't like it but I didn't think it was that big a deal. First, it was obvious it wasn't a day-to-day type of injury so you knew the streak was going to end anyway. Second, Lou Gehrig pulled a similar stunt at least once to keep his streak alive by batting leadoff and then leaving the game. That is what makes Cal's streak even more amazing - he started every game, in the field, with the intention of finishing it. (He was ejected a couple of times early in a game.) The bigger issue for the Orioles is that their incredibly anemic (and WAY overpaid) lineup is now missing its most dynamic threat for at least a month. I think last place is looking more and more likely.
• Peter Angelos again takes the cowardly approach: Pete was a no-show for both press conferences this week, despite the fact he OWNS a team worth $600 million with millions of hard-working fans that give their time and money to HIS team and despite the fact that both decisions were HIS. On top of that, his "baseball people" heard about McPhail's hiring when it was reported on ESPN. You're such a class act Pete. Why don't you just SELL MY TEAM?
  

So where do the O's go from here? Since McPhail was unable to get Girardi, I think he should stick with Trembley for the rest of the season. In the meantime, he can evaluate the O's talent (or lack thereof) and determine what he needs to do. Personally, I would trade Steve Trachsel, every veteran reliever he can, except Chris Ray, and every regular player he can, except Nick Markakis. The two-headed GM catastrophe of Flanagan and Duquette (with Pete's input) have assembled an overpaid group of mediocre veterans everywhere except the starting rotation. It's going to be hard to get rid of bums like Aubrey Huff, Jay Gibbons, Melvin Mora, Ramon Hernandez, and Danys Baez because they have contracts through 2009. No sane team is going to want to give up much to take on those contracts (each makes at least $5M/season). So McPhail may not be able to really do much until next July, when these players have one less year left on their contracts (and maybe they're performing better).

During the offseason McPhail should seriously consider trading Brian Roberts. Don't get me wrong - I love Brian Roberts. He's everything that the old Orioles were about. But he's a free agent after '09. With the contracts the O's have on their books, they won't be a contender until at least '10 or '11, by which time Roberts will be in his 30's, making a ton more money, and have declining stats. With the great year he's having and 2 more years on his contract he will probably be at his highest trade value this offseason.

I would also consider trading Erik Bedard. Like Roberts, he's a free agent after '09 and he's having an good year. Unlike Roberts, he's a jerk and I have a feeling he won't play nice in negotiations. I would get the maximum value while I can.

If McPhail follows this line, then he would probably want to hire a guy like Cora. If he thinks he can win with the current crap roster then he would be better off hiring Dusty Baker or Davey Johnson. Either way, IF Angelos leaves him alone, I'm confident he will get the O's back on track. Of course, as I mentioned earlier, that's a HUGE IF.

Coach Hep

IU Football Coach Terry Hoeppner lost his battle with brain cancer on Tuesday at the age of 59. My thoughts and prayers go out to the Hoeppner family.

Coach Hep brought such energy and passion to IU football. Last season, despite having brain surgery on September 13, he coached IU to within 1 win of a bowl game. I'll never forget the 2 Saturdays in October when IU beat Iowa and destroyed Michigan State on Homecoming. There was an electricity inside Memorial Stadium. Even in the bowl years of undergrad I don't remember that much excitement.

Rest in peace Coach Hep. You'll be missed.

True Hope or Mirage in the Desert?

The O's fired Sam Perlozzo today. As I told Marc today, this is like re-arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. Do I think Perlozzo could lead the Orioles to the promised land? No. At best he's a mediocre manager; more likely he's a good coach and a lousy manager. But firing him is not going to change the Orioles' fortunes.

The potentially much more significant move is the reported hiring of Andy McPhail as COO. McPhail replaces Joe Foss, a former banker with no baseball experience. McPhail, on the other hand, has been in the game his entire life. His father, Lee, was GM of the Orioles from '58-'65 and helped build the O's into one of the premiere organizations in baseball. Andy won 2 World Series as Twins' GM and as President of the Cubs, Chicago made 2 post-season appearances. As a point of comparison, they made one postseason appearance in the previous 50 years.

I see 2 possible scenarios - the O's/Pat Gillick scenario or the Indy Colts/Bill Polian scenario. In the first scenario, Pat Gillick ran into the Peter Angelos Ego buzz-saw and quit after 3 seasons, despite 2 playoff appearances. In the second scenario, Jim Irsay ceded all football operations to the previously successful Polian (something his father could never do). We all know what happened there.

As I've said previously, the one thing Peter Angelos has taken away more than anything is HOPE. According to the reports, Angelos has agreed to give McPhail full authority. If this is true, then HOPE has returned. However, given his track record, I'm not holding my breath.

Thanks Pete!

You continue to save me money. Your childish, Napoleanic decision saved me the $120 I would have spent to buy a Brian Roberts new "Baltimore" road jersey next year.

"Baltimore" on road jerseys

I have to admit, as painful as it has been to watch my team held hostage by this jackass, Pete has saved me a lot of money. I no longer make road-trips to see them on the road, I don't plan a long weekend in Maryland to see them play (although I will make a trip to see Ravens training camp this summer), and I no longer update my O's gear. I do spend money on the DIRECTV baseball package to watch them but I also get to watch other great games (Tigers-Indians last night was amazing!).

Pete, I'm glad your power-play makes you feel good. I hope it's worth it when you spend eternity with Bob Irsay! You deserve each other!