Wednesday, April 18, 2007

Early season thoughts on the O's

The O's are about 10% through their schedule. There are still 147 games to go but some strengths and weaknesses are starting to show:

Early Strengths
  1. The bullpen: Not only have the big free agent signees performed well, the O's have gotten strong performances from 2 unlikely sources: Jeremy Guthrie and John Parrish. This is the best O's 'pen since the '97 wire-to-wire team under Davey Johnson. It feels like if the O's have the lead after 5, they've got the game. The big concern right now is whether they'll wear down due to overuse.
  2. The lineup (against right-handers): The O's are 6-1 in their last 7 games against a RH starter. The only loss - Justin Verlander's dominating performance last week at Camden Yards. With Markakis, Huff, Gibbons, Patterson, and Roberts from the left side and Tejada from the right side, mediocre right-handers (of which there are plenty) are going to get hit.
Early Weaknesses
  1. Team defense: It's downright brutal. The O's have given up a ton of EARNED runs that even an average defensive team doesn't give up. This will improve some with the return of Jay Payton and Ramon Hernandez, but they'll still be below-average. Tejada looks terrible at shortstop - no range and poor footwork.
  2. The lineup (against left-handers): The O's are 2-4 against lefties, including today's win against Scott Kazmir. Again, they'll be helped by the return of Payton and Hernandez. But even with those two in the lineup the O's will be starting 3 left-handed hitters against most lefties. And Brian Roberts, a switch-hitter, is weaker from the right side.
Jury is still out
  1. Starting Pitching: A week ago I would have said that this looks like a strength, with a string of strong performances. But Bedard has looked shaky (over 5.00 ERA in 4 starts), Loewen is throwing way too many pitches, Jaret Wright is on the DL after one good and one bad outing, and Steve Trachsel saw his ERA balloon from 2.63 to over 5.00 over the course of 10 batters last night. Cabrera didn't look great last time out but he is throwing strikes and is finding a way to win when he doesn't have his (very) dominating stuff.
  2. Bench: A week ago I would have said this looks like a weakness, but Chris Gomez, Freddy Bynum, and Jon Knott (who the hell is he?) played well this week. Paul Bako and Alberto Castillo have done a nice job filling in for Hernandez although there have been way too many passed balls.
  3. "The Quest for 82": It's going to be close. The starting pitching, particularly Bedard, has to get better so that the bullpen doesn't burn out in July. Everyone in the AL looks better. Even though the O's just went 5-1 against the Royals and Devil Rays, those 2 teams look improved. I'm very impressed with the core of young position players the Devil Rays have. If they get ANY pitching, they're going to be very good in a couple of years.

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